This was not the headline I expected to be writing on a Sunday in March, yet here we are. Polling in the 2024 GOP primary is still extremely premature, but a couple of trends have been emerging. At least until we get some other major names into the mix (assuming there are any on the way) the early competition is between former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

But Trump has been holding a clear lead over the course of several consecutive polls now. At CNN this weekend, Harry Enten breaks down the two latest and comes up with a surprising (at least to me) nugget of data. Trump’s current lead is made up almost entirely of Republican voters of color. Without that edge, Trump and DeSantis would be effectively tied.

 

Former President Donald Trump holds an average double-digit advantage over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in national 2024 Republican primary surveys. That, in itself, isn’t notable given Trump, the frontrunner, has been ahead of DeSantis (by far his nearest competitor or potential competitor) since polling began about the race.