If Democrats were hoping to mobilize the youth vote by backing cackling Kamala Harris, the first batch of data we have since Joe Biden dropped out suggests that isn’t happening - at least not yet.

If grouping voters by age, the youth demographic overwhelmingly votes Democrat, a party they’ve backed by double digits in presidential elections in the Obama and post-Obama era. In 2008 nearly 70% of voters under 30 voted for Obama, while he got 60% in 2012. Hillary Clinton got 58% of this Demographic (to Trump’s 28%, because 14% voted third party), while Biden captured about 60%.

But things aren’t looking as optimistic for Harris. As CNN noted in their reporting on the latest polling data, while Biden led Trump by 21 points in the Under age 35 demographic, Harris is only leading by 9 points. (Note that these are of voters under age 35 while the data quoted in the paragraph above are of voters age 29, but this barely changes the numbers). 

“Let’s remember where we were at the end of the 2020 campaign. Voters under the age of 35 were leading Biden by 21 points. Let’s see for Kamala Harris. She’s still ahead, but the margin is significantly less than we saw for Biden in 2020. You may make the argument that’s better than Biden was doing before he got out, but compared to the Democratic baseline, where Democrats have historically, at least this century, been carrying that young vote by 20 or more percentage points. She is way down from that” CNN’s Henry Enten explained.

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