A county, that has gone Republican in more races since 1964 than Democrat, even having gone Republican in the course of the past two election cycles with native-son Mitt Romney in 2012 and to Trump in 2016 by 3 points, swings suddenly, out of nowhere, back into the blue column? A nine-point swing? In 4 years? GET OUT.
Yet in Michigan, eight counties bucked the 2012 numbers by huge margins. Of the state’s 83 counties, Biden lagged on Obama’s 2012 showing in 56 of those counties. Of those 56 counties, Biden trailed Obama by double digits in half of them and single digits in the other half. For all the counties in the state, Biden trailed Obama’s 2012 performance by an average of 1.01%. In the eight counties, we are looking at today, Biden beat Obama by anywhere between 29.56% to (yes, this number is correct) 51.08%. As I have said before, Biden isn’t Obama, and if anything he’s just to the north of Clinton on likeability. You’re never going to convince me that suddenly in cities that aren’t Detroit, Biden jumps Obama by double-digits, especially when that trend doesn’t carry to any other county in non-swing states.
To Compare, Trump in 2020 improved in every county over 2012, except for one, where he lost 0.3% over Romney. Trump improved, on average 34.06% in counties in Michigan over Romney’s 2012 showing. Again, Biden’s average underperformed by 1.01% while Trump’s average overperformed by 34.06%. Voter’s attitudes across the state favored Trump.